Milken Institute, Santa Monica, 2014 to present
Director of Research, International Finance and Capital Markets
Banque de France (Central Bank of France), Paris, 2010 to 2014
Senior Research Economist and Deputy Head, Structural Economic Analysis Div.
Senior Research Economist and Head, International Finance and Macroeconomics Section
University of Cincinnati, 2003 to 2010
Tenured Professor, Economics
University of Houston, 2000 to 2003
As many central banks contemplate the normalization of monetary policy, their focus is turning to the promise of macroprudential policy as a tool to manage possible future systemic risk in financial markets. Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, among others, are pinning much of their hopes for managing financial stability in the context of Basel III on macroprudentialism. Despite central banks’ clear intention that this policy will play a significant role in developed economies, few policymakers or financial players know what macroprudential policy is, much less how to assess its efficacy or necessity. Our report aims to clarify the concept of macroprudential policy for a broader audience, cultivating a better understanding of these tools and their implications for broader monetary policy going forward. The report also advocates the use of more refined indicators for financial cycles as benchmarks for policy discussions on macroprudential policy.
While the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth has long been an issue of key importance in international macroeconomics, it has received renewed attention in recent years, owing to weaker growth rates and the debate on “currency wars”. However, in spite of its prevalence in the policy debate, the connection between real exchange rates and growth remains an unsettled question in the academic literature. We fill this gap by providing an empirical assessment based on a broad sample of emerging and advanced economies. We assess the impact of appreciations, productivity booms and capital inflows surges using a propensity-score matching approach to address causality issues. We show that appreciations associated with higher productivity have a larger impact on growth than appreciations associated with capital inflows. Furthermore, the appreciation per se tends to have a negative impact on growth. We provide a simple theoretical model that delivers the contrasted growth-appreciation pattern depending on the underlying shock. The model also implies adverse effects of shocks to international capital flows, so concerns about an appreciation are not inconsistent with concerns about a depreciation. The presence of an externality through firms’ destruction leads to inefficient allocations. Nonetheless, addressing them does not require a dampening of exchange rate movements.
In this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure but let the data select it. To do so, we model the dependence between commodity (metal, agriculture and energy) and stock markets using a flexible approach that allows us to investigate whether the co-movement is : (i) symmetric and occurring most of the time, (ii) symmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events and (iii) asymmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events. We also allow for this dependence to be time-varying from January 1990 to February 2012. Our analysis uncovers three major stylized facts. First, we find that the dependence between commodity and stock markets is time varying, symmetric and occurs most of the time (as opposed to mostly in extreme events). Second, not allowing for time-varying parameters in the dependence distribution generates a bias toward evidence of tail dependence. Similarly, considering only tail dependence may lead to wrong evidence of asymmetry. Third, a growing comovement between industrial metals and equity markets is identified as early as in 2003, a comovement that spreads to all commodity classes and becomes unambiguously stronger with the global financial crisis after Fall 2008.
C. Durand and C. Lopez (2012), Taux de change d'equilibre et mesure de la competitivite au sein de la zone euro, Bulletin de la Banque de France, 190 : 125-134.
Report (2011), The impact of the earthquake of March 11th on the Japanese economy and the rest of the world, Bulletin de la Banque de France, 21: 5-25.
Delatte, AL and C. Lopez (2013), Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach, Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(12), 5346-5356.
Ball, C., Lopez, C. and J. Reyes (2013), Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies, The World Economy, 36(4), 487-504
Kejriwal, M. and C. Lopez (2013), Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation, Econometric Reviews, 32(8), 892-927
Lopez, C. Murray C.J., and D.H. Papell (2013), Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle, Applied Economics, 45(4), 455-464
Lopez, C. and D.H. Papell (2012), Convergence of Euro Area Inflation Rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(6), 1440-1458
Hoarau, J.F., C. Lopez and M. Paul (2010), Short Note on the Unemployment Rate of the “French Overseas Region, Economics Bulletin, 30(3):2321-29
Lopez, C. (2009), GLS-detrending and Regime-wise Stationarity Testing in Small Samples, Economics Letters, 104(2): 99-101
Lopez, C. and J. Reyes (2009), Real Interest Rate Stationarity and Consumption Growth Rate, Applied Economics, 41(13):1643 – 1651
Lopez, C., (2009), Euro-zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-wise Stationary Processes, Economics Bulletin, 29(1): 238-243
Lopez, C., (2009) Panel Unit Root with Good Power in Small Samples, Econometric Reviews, 28(4): 295-313
Lopez, C., (2008), Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity for the Floating Regime Period, Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(1): 156-164
Lopez, C. and D.H. Papell, (2007), Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity at the Commencement of the Euro, with D.H. Papell, Review of International Economics, 15(1): 1–16
Lopez, C., Murray C.J., and D.H. Papell, (2005), State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 37: 361-369
Financial Econometrics (France)
Applied Economic Practicum (USA)
Applied Economic Forecasting (USA)
Macroeconomic Theory (USA)
Statistics for Economists (USA)
Intermediate Macroeconomics (USA)
Principles of Macroeconomics (USA)