Milken Institute, Santa Monica, 2014 to present
Director of Research, International Finance and Capital Markets
Banque de France (Central Bank of France), Paris, 2010 to 2014
Senior Research Economist and Deputy Head, Structural Economic Analysis Div.
Senior Research Economist and Head, International Finance and Macroeconomics Section
University of Cincinnati, 2003 to 2010
Tenured Professor, Economics
University of Houston, 2000 to 2003
This report first assesses the state of trade finance market in Asia, then it identifies the latest trend. Finally it provides a synopsis of the necessary steps that will help sustain trade growth in emerging Asia and insure its impact on GDP growth. The key points are as follows:
(i) the impact of trade liberalization on countries ‘growth is very short lives in absence of financial deregulations, (ii) trade in Asian countries relies heavily on letters of credit (L/Cs) which leaves a lot of unmet credit needs, especially for SMEs, (iii) several alternatives are slowly emerging, from banks (factoring, supply chain finance), but also from non- banks (Global and Regional Value chains and inter-firm trade credit), (iv) on the investors’ side, trade receivable assets (via securitization or direct investment) is considered as an possibly attractive alternative due to new financial regulation and low interest rate, (v) trade receivable assets offer attractive alpha yield opportunities, consistent returns, low volatility, “real Economy” investment and lower defaults rates than any other interest based asset class, and a behavior uncorrelated to the market.
Policy recommendations to help expanding lenders and investors/capital pool: streamlining the trade finance process, uniformisation of international regulations, strengthening of the institutions helping to mitigate risk, dematerialization of the process (use of technology)
As many central banks contemplate the normalization of monetary policy, their focus is turning to the promise of macroprudential policy as a tool to manage possible future systemic risk in financial markets. Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, among others, are pinning much of their hopes for managing financial stability in the context of Basel III on macroprudentialism. Despite central banks’ clear intention that this policy will play a significant role in developed economies, few policymakers or financial players know what macroprudential policy is, much less how to assess its efficacy or necessity. Our report aims to clarify the concept of macroprudential policy for a broader audience, cultivating a better understanding of these tools and their implications for broader monetary policy going forward. The report also advocates the use of more refined indicators for financial cycles as benchmarks for policy discussions on macroprudential policy.
While the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth has long been an issue of key importance in international macroeconomics, it has received renewed attention in recent years, owing to weaker growth rates and the debate on “currency wars”. However, in spite of its prevalence in the policy debate, the connection between real exchange rates and growth remains an unsettled question in the academic literature. We fill this gap by providing an empirical assessment based on a broad sample of emerging and advanced economies. We assess the impact of appreciations, productivity booms and capital inflows surges using a propensity-score matching approach to address causality issues. We show that appreciations associated with higher productivity have a larger impact on growth than appreciations associated with capital inflows. Furthermore, the appreciation per se tends to have a negative impact on growth. We provide a simple theoretical model that delivers the contrasted growth-appreciation pattern depending on the underlying shock. The model also implies adverse effects of shocks to international capital flows, so concerns about an appreciation are not inconsistent with concerns about a depreciation. The presence of an externality through firms’ destruction leads to inefficient allocations. Nonetheless, addressing them does not require a dampening of exchange rate movements.
C. Lopez, S. Lin and J. Wilhelmus, Trade Finance : The Catalyst for Asian Growth, MI report, September 2015
M. Bussiere, C. Lopez and C. Tille, Exchange Rate Appreciations and Growth: The Drivers Matter, VOX August 2015
C. Lopez, D. Markwardt and K. Savard, Macroprudential policy, A Silver bullet of Refighting the Last War?, MI report, July 2015
C. Durand and C. Lopez (2012), Taux de change d'equilibre et mesure de la competitivite au sein de la zone euro, Bulletin de la Banque de France, 190 : 125-134.
Report (2011), The impact of the earthquake of March 11th on the Japanese economy and the rest of the world, Bulletin de la Banque de France, 21: 5-25.
C. Lopez, D. Markwardt and K. Savard, Macroprudential policy: What does it Mean, really?, Banking & Financial Services Policy Report
Delatte, AL and C. Lopez (2013), Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach, Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(12), 5346-5356. CEPR DP 9558
Ball, C., Lopez, C. and J. Reyes (2013), Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies, The World Economy, 36(4), 487-504
Kejriwal, M. and C. Lopez (2013), Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation, Econometric Reviews, 32(8), 892-927
Lopez, C. Murray C.J., and D.H. Papell (2013), Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle, Applied Economics, 45(4), 455-464
Lopez, C. and D.H. Papell (2012), Convergence of Euro Area Inflation Rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(6), 1440-1458
Hoarau, J.F., C. Lopez and M. Paul (2010), Short Note on the Unemployment Rate of the “French Overseas Region, Economics Bulletin, 30(3):2321-29
Lopez, C. (2009), GLS-detrending and Regime-wise Stationarity Testing in Small Samples, Economics Letters, 104(2): 99-101
Lopez, C. and J. Reyes (2009), Real Interest Rate Stationarity and Consumption Growth Rate, Applied Economics, 41(13):1643 – 1651
Lopez, C., (2009), Euro-zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-wise Stationary Processes, Economics Bulletin, 29(1): 238-243
Lopez, C., (2009) Panel Unit Root with Good Power in Small Samples, Econometric Reviews, 28(4): 295-313
Lopez, C., (2008), Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity for the Floating Regime Period, Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(1): 156-164
Lopez, C. and D.H. Papell, (2007), Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity at the Commencement of the Euro, with D.H. Papell, Review of International Economics, 15(1): 1–16
Lopez, C., Murray C.J., and D.H. Papell, (2005), State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 37: 361-369
Financial Econometrics (France)
Applied Economic Practicum (USA)
Applied Economic Forecasting (USA)
Macroeconomic Theory (USA)
Statistics for Economists (USA)
Intermediate Macroeconomics (USA)
Principles of Macroeconomics (USA)